Christian’s Feed curated by 3506

Today's picks

• Forecastability as an Information-Theoretic Limit on Prediction forecastability + model triage
• What is the Monte Carlo Simulation? ranges > point targets
• AI features are eroding your subscription app’s margins — here’s how to fix it unit economics + cohort proof
• Your SaaS Loses Users in the First 90 Seconds. Your Analytics Won’t Tell You Why time-to-value + blind spots

History

Archive of prior daily picks (newest first).

2026-04-01 archived

• AI features are eroding your subscription app’s margins — here’s how to fix it unit economics + cohort proof
• An Information-Theoretic Diagnostic Analytics Framework for Mapping Past-Future Dependence in Horizon-Specific Forecastability forecastability + model triage
• SaaS user retention in 2026: How to build for long-term engagement retention economics + compounding
• Your SaaS Loses Users in the First 90 Seconds. Your Analytics Won’t Tell You Why time-to-value + blind spots

2026-03-31 archived

• AI features are eroding your subscription app’s margins — here’s how to fix it unit economics + cohort proof
• An Information-Theoretic Diagnostic Analytics Framework for Mapping Past-Future Dependence in Horizon-Specific Forecastability forecastability + model triage
• What is the Monte Carlo Simulation? ranges > point targets
• SaaS user retention in 2026: How to build for long-term engagement retention economics + compounding
• Your SaaS Loses Users in the First 90 Seconds. Your Analytics Won’t Tell You Why time-to-value + blind spots

2026-03-30 archived

• AI features are eroding your subscription app’s margins — here’s how to fix it unit economics + retention cohorts
• Forecasting and Manipulating the Forecasts of Others forecasting + feedback loops
• SaaS user retention in 2026: How to build for long-term engagement retention economics + compounding
• Cohort analysis: what it is and how to do it cohorts + behavior over time

2026-03-29 archived

• Why zero-click search doesn’t mean zero influence measurement shifts + visibility
• Forecasting and Manipulating the Forecasts of Others forecasting + feedback loops
• SaaS user retention in 2026: How to build for long-term engagement cohorts + retention economics
• Cohort analysis: what it is and how to do it cohort thinking + behavior over time

2026-03-28 archived

• Why zero-click search doesn’t mean zero influence measurement shifts + visibility
• Forecasting and Manipulating the Forecasts of Others forecasting + feedback loops
• Data Vis Dispatch, March 24: Inequality, U.S. politics, and IVF visual thinking + recent exemplars
• SaaS user retention in 2026: How to build for long-term engagement cohorts + retention economics

2026-03-27 archived

• From Accuracy to Readiness: Metrics and Benchmarks for Human-AI Decision-Making beyond-accuracy + decision-readiness
• When is a forecast ‘good enough’? Rethinking contact center forecasting forecasting + operational agility
• Forecasting and Manipulating the Forecasts of Others strategic forecasting + feedback loops
• Data Vis Dispatch, March 24: Inequality, U.S. politics, and IVF visual thinking + recent exemplars

2026-03-26 archived

• From Accuracy to Readiness: Metrics and Benchmarks for Human-AI Decision-Making beyond-accuracy + decision-readiness
• When is a forecast ‘good enough’? Rethinking contact center forecasting forecasting + operational agility
• Forecasting and Manipulating the Forecasts of Others strategic forecasting + feedback loops
• Data Vis Dispatch, March 24: Inequality, U.S. politics, and IVF visual thinking + recent exemplars

2026-03-25 archived

• From Accuracy to Readiness: Metrics and Benchmarks for Human-AI Decision-Making beyond-accuracy + decision-readiness
• 6 steps to use churn prediction for predictable revenue cohorts + churn forecasting
• Why Simple Thinking Produces Bad Decisions systems thinking + feedback loops
• What investors say vs What they mean anti-dashboard-theater + retention

2026-03-24 archived

• Beyond Accuracy: Evaluating Forecasting Models by Multi-Echelon Inventory Cost forecasting → downstream cost
• Why Retention Matters More Than Acquisition at Series A cohorts + retention economics
• Forecasting and Manipulating the Forecasts of Others strategic forecasting + feedback loops

2026-03-12 archived

• The Box You Can’t Open Twice: Newcomb’s Paradox Through Four Mathematical Lenses decision + counterfactuals
• Introduction to Causal Inference: DoWhy and the Lalonde Dataset causal inference walkthrough
• Better KPI visualizations in Power BI reports: a comprehensive guide anti-dashboard-theater
• What is the Monte Carlo Simulation? probabilistic forecasting

2026-03-11 archived

• Better KPI visualizations in Power BI reports: a comprehensive guide metrics-context
• The End of Forecast Friction: One Plan for Mid-Market Retail forecasting
• What Is a Simulation Model and How Does It Work? simulation
• What Are Cohorts and How Do Cohort Studies Work? cohorts

2026-03-10 archived

• Forecast Accuracy Benchmarks: What “Good” Really Means forecasting
• Predictive Sales Analytics Guide For Revenue Teams (scenario modeling) scenario-modeling
• Data Visualization Design for Interactive Dashboards interactive-viz
• What is Information Visualization? (IxDF, updated 2026) viz-thinking
• 3 Best Sales Forecasting Methods & Models for 2026 forecasting-methods

2026-03-09 archived

• Cohort Retention in SQL (trustworthy retention tables: cohort definition, duplicates, partial cohorts) cohorts
• Data Visualization: A Practical Introduction (2nd edition draft) visual-thinking
• Financial Reporting Automation: 8 Hours to 8 Minutes (FinQore case study) anti-dashboard-theater

2026-03-08 archived

• Rethinking the Role of LLMs in Time Series Forecasting (large-scale eval + distribution shift) forecasting
• Building a Revenue Forecasting App in Sigma (scenario analysis + write-back) interactivity
• What Is Time to Value (TTV)? (define value moment; segment by cohort/channel/tier) time-to-value

2026-03-07 archived

• When Do Tools and Planning Help Large Language Models Think? (cost- & latency-aware benchmark) planning+tools
• Inferring the causes of noise from binary outcomes: learning under uncertainty (volatility vs stochasticity) noise vs change
• Forecasting the Next Pandemic (Yale School of Public Health) forecasting
• Forecast Accuracy Benchmarks: What “Good” Really Means (ToolsGroup) variance & bias

2026-03-06 archived

• Your Dashboard Looks Great and Changes Nothing anti-dashboard-theater
• Is Your Forecast Based on Evidence or Optimism? forecasting
• What Is Cohort Retention Analysis: Essential Metrics Guide cohorts
• Productivity Theater metrics-theater

2026-03-05 archived

• Verticalized Software: Why It Wins (And Why Sitetracker Built for More Than One “Vertical”) time-to-value + vocabulary
• The Role of Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis for FP&A Professionals what-if / assumptions
• How a Monte Carlo analysis could help improve your retirement plan simulation / ranges

2026-03-04 archived

• Forecasting on the Accuracy–Timeliness Frontier: Two Novel ‘Look Ahead’ Predictors forecasting + lag
• Robust optimal reconciliation for hierarchical time series forecasting with M-estimation hierarchies
• Design Principles for Interactive Dashboards in Drug Safety Surveillance (Design Science Research) interactive dashboards
• What Is Cohort Retention Analysis: Essential Metrics Guide cohorts

2026-03-03 archived

• Your Dashboard Looks Great and Changes Nothing anti-dashboard-theater
• Most Policy Dashboards are Built to Impress Leadership, not to Guide Them decision-making
• Mind The Gap When Evaluating Strategy assumptions & checkpoints
• Forecasting on the Accuracy–Timeliness Frontier: Two Novel ‘Look Ahead’ Predictors forecast lag vs lead
• Design Principles for Interactive Dashboards in Drug Safety Surveillance (Design Science Research) interactive dashboards

2026-03-02 archived

• Design Principles for Interactive Dashboards in Drug Safety Surveillance (JMIR Med Inform, 2026) interactivity + uncertainty
• Mastering Forecast Accuracy and Proactive Model Drift Monitoring forecasting ops
• Uncertainty Modeling for SysML v2 (arXiv) explicit uncertainty
• Lag Features and Rolling Features in Feature Engineering (time series) time / lag
• Using AI for Data Analysis: The Ultimate Guide (2026) — embedded + interactive analytics angle embedded analytics

2026-03-01 archived

• Productivity Theater (AI dashboards as incentives) anti-metrics
• Can LLM Embeddings Improve Time Series Forecasting? (practical feature engineering) forecasting
• Explore forecast-to-plan planning scenarios in Power BI (writeback + what-if) targets-vs-forecast
• Enterprise capacity planning tools (scenario variables → bottlenecks/outcomes) what-if

2026-02-28 archived

• Scenario Planning — Futures Garden (primer) forecasting ≠ planning / narratives
• Google to change budget pacing for campaigns using ad scheduling — Search Engine Land pacing / targets / constraints
• What-If Forecasting Model for Accountants — Riskrate what-if modeling / scenarios
• From Samples to Scenarios: A New Paradigm for Probabilistic Forecasting — arXiv probabilistic forecasting
• Retention-Driven Marketing for D2C Brands — 23HubLab LTV / retention economics

2026-02-27 archived

• Forecasting on the Accuracy–Timeliness Frontier: Two Novel ‘Look Ahead’ Predictors — arXiv forecasting / lag vs lead
• Cash Flow Forecasting: A Strategic Guide for Finance Leaders — Tipalti forecast vs plan / drivers
• Working with the Retention Metrics Dashboard — NetSuite (docs) retention decomposition
• Shopify Subscription Analytics: using cohorts to spot low-retention periods — Loopwork cohorts / retention

2026-02-26 archived

• Forecasting Anomaly Precursors with Uncertainty-Aware Time-series Ensembles (FATE) — arXiv forecasting / uncertainty
• Bad Data Visualization: 9 Examples to Learn From (and why users export to Excel) — Luzmo anti-dashboard-theater
• How social media agencies can forecast creator and production costs accurately (rolling forecasts + cost drivers) — Sidekick Accounting forecasting / cost drivers
• Google’s spam update vs. AI affiliate sites: An SEO experiment (trust signals vs. scale) — Search Engine Land systems / incentives

2026-02-25 archived

• A gentle introduction to time series analysis & forecasting forecasting (time series)
• Regrettable Attrition: Leading Indicators and How to Prevent It leading vs lagging indicators
• Make a Cohort Analysis in Excel (dynamic model) cohorts / retention

2026-02-24 archived

• COVID-19 Ensemble Forecasts (CDC) forecast ensembles / uncertainty
• Sales Forecasting: 7 Methods Compared (with benchmarks) baseline vs plan / method tradeoffs
• The MMM Worked. So Why Didn’t Anything Change? (Recast) forecasting workflow / pacing loop

2026-02-23 archived

• Simplifying Outcomes of Language Model Component Analyses with ELIA explorable interfaces > static viz
• From Prototype to Production: The MLOps Backbone Behind Belgian System Imbalance Forecasting forecasting as a 24/7 system
• How to Implement Capacity Planning Using Google Cloud Monitoring Forecasting forecast-horizon as first-class
• Project Genie: Experimenting with infinite, interactive worlds simulation / explorable worlds

2026-02-22 archived

• The MMM Worked. So Why Didn't Anything Change? forecasting infrastructure / decision loop
• What Is Cohort Analysis? cohorts over time / retention
• Making Assumptions Explicit: The Most Underrated Step in Enterprise AI explicit assumptions / governance
• Data Storytelling for COOs: How to Sell Your Ideas with Data anti-dashboard-theater / narrative→action

2026-02-21 archived

• Google launches no-code Scenario Planner built on Meridian MMM interactive-scenarios
• Premier League Season Forecast (50,000 Monte Carlo sims with hot Elo) simulation
• Seven indicators of strategy targets-vs-plans
• Plan vs. planning: Why continuous planning must traverse time assumptions-decay
• Category Design – How to build your own category instead of fighting in the old one new-criteria

2026-02-20 archived

• Why Forecast Accuracy Matters More Than Attribution Accuracy in MMM forecasting vs attribution / falsifiability
• The Critical Horizon: Inspection Design Principles for Multi-Stage Operations and Deep Reasoning time-to-value / stage attribution (signal decay)
• Measuring economic outlook in the news (NEOS) — interpretable outlook indicator from news forecasting / interpretable signals
• advertorials aren't just for acquisition cohorts / expectation-setting / long lag

2026-02-19 archived

• Workforce Planning and Forecasting: How to Plan With Market Reality Forecast vs plan (baseline vs intent)
• What Is Cohort Analysis? Cohorts over time (avoid averages)
• Longitudinal Data: The Complete Guide to Tracking Change Time-to-value needs persistent IDs
• 7 Common Financial Modeling Mistakes and How to Avoid Them Model hygiene + sensitivity
• Pre and Post Survey: The Complete Guide to Measuring Real Change Baseline → outcome linkage

2026-02-18 archived

• The MMM Worked. So Why Didn’t Anything Change? MMM as forecasting workflow
• From Data to Insight: Why Meaning Must Be Made Explicit anti-dashboard-theater
• What Is User Retention? How to Measure & Increase It cohorts / retention curves
• The $50 Million Spare Part constraints + realistic forecasting

2026-02-17 archived

• What is a Monte Carlo simulation? (probabilistic forecasting, not point-estimates) simulation / forecasting
• Forecasting and Modeling Tools for Decision Support (CDC Insight Net) decision-support / forecasting
• Tree/treemap visualization of LEGO themes & sets (interactive Observable notebook) explorable viz
• Web-based cardiovascular disease risk prediction using machine learning (interactive outputs + SHAP export) model inspection

2026-02-16 archived

• The Critical Horizon: Inspection Design Principles for Multi-Stage Operations and Deep Reasoning signal decay / inspection design
• Time Series Forecasting: Building Reliable Prediction Systems with Traditional and ML Approaches forecasting as production system
• Workforce Planning and Forecasting: How to Plan With Market Reality plan vs forecast
• Data Storytelling That Works: 5 Proof-Backed Frameworks for Communicating Insights Clearly story → action (anti data-dump)

2026-02-15 archived

• Workforce planning and forecasting for labor market intelligence (validate assumptions against external demand) forecasting-vs-plan
• CPG demand forecasting best practices (volatility, bias reduction, methodology > perfect accuracy) forecasting
• Time series forecasting: traditional and ML approaches (monitoring + evaluation architecture) forecasting-pipeline
• LEGO tree plots and treemaps (interactive Observable notebook exploring hierarchies) explorable-hierarchy

2026-02-14 archived

• Uncovering the mechanisms of virtual reality (VR)-enhanced neuroscience education (Frontiers) learning via simulation
• Braking under full throttle: How 2026 cars will defy our common sense of racing (Telemetry Simulation) explaining systems w/ telemetry
• What is a Forecast? (AWS) forecasting primitives
• Customer retention rate: measuring and improving in 2026 (monday.com) retention as early signal

2026-02-12 archived

• The difference between a budget and a forecast forecast vs target
• 4 Best Retirement Calculators (#1 is Free) scenario + Monte Carlo thinking
• Kyrtos: Automatic deep analysis of chart curves in technical documents (arXiv) curves → structure (begging for interactivity)
• Seaborn Heatmap: A Comprehensive Guide cohorts/heatmaps (practical)

2026-02-11 archived

• SaaS vs AI, Scenario Analysis scenario analysis
• The SaaSpocalypse mispricing: Why markets are getting the AI-software shakeout wrong targets vs forecast
• Turning mechanistic models into forecasters by using machine learning mechanistic forecasting
• 60+ SaaS Marketing Statistics & Benchmarks for 2026 benchmarks vs targets

2026-02-10 archived

• State of the Art of LLM-Enabled Interaction with Visualization interactive-vis
• Project Genie (Google experiment): generative, explorable interactive worlds simulation
• OpenSearch ML Commons: Visualization tool (agent tool API) tooling
• Neuropsych VLM Bench (replicable visual tests pipeline) evaluation

2026-02-09 archived

• The difference between a budget and a forecast targets-vs-forecast
• Progressive Visual Analytics: User-Driven Visual Exploration of In-Progress Analytics progressive-visual-analytics
• The reason why different forecasting models can have noticeably different predictions ensembles-uncertainty
• Explorable Explanations (Bret Victor) explorable-explanations

2026-02-08 archived

• Project Genie: Experimenting with infinite, interactive worlds interactive worlds
• NASA Interactives (games + explorable sims) explorable sims
• Drive Performance with Leading vs Lagging Indicators Framework lag & outcomes
• Agent Economics: a BOTEC on feasibility time half-life
• Turning mechanistic models into forecasters by using machine learning (arXiv) forecasting

2026-02-07 archived

• Turning mechanistic models into forecasters by using machine learning (arXiv:2602.04114) forecasting + mechanistic models
• Fundamental's $255M Launch: AI Finally Gets Tables Features structured data + time-to-value
• Lag Plots for Time Series: My Go-To Visual for Autocorrelation, Seasonality, and “Is This Just Noise?” explorable sanity-check viz

2026-02-06 archived

• Agent Economics: a BOTEC on feasibility (interactive model + sensitivity) interactive model
• Research on World Models Is Not Merely Injecting World Knowledge into Specific Tasks (arXiv) world models
• Eyes on Asteroids (NASA/JPL) — explorable solar-system viz explorable viz
• Startup Financial Model Sensitivity Analysis for Runway and Risk sensitivity/runway

2026-02-05 archived

• Why most activation metrics don’t predict who will stay (and what to use instead) activation→retention (cohorts)
• Diagnostics (Prophet): cross-validation + performance metrics for forecasts forecasting validation
• Lag plots for time series: a fast visual for autocorrelation/seasonality/noise visual time-series sanity check

2026-02-04 archived

• How to Use Salesforce for Sales Forecasting (incl. sandbagging incentive failure) forecasting vs targets
• Manufacturing KPIs in Salesforce: Forecast Accuracy, Fill Rate, Churn forecast accuracy
• Reinforcement learning for revenue management with delayed feedback (arXiv HTML) time-to-value / lag
• What is a realistic forecast? From verification to falsification (arXiv HTML) forecasting discipline
• How-to Value a SaaS Company: 2026 step-by-step (TTM vs run-rate) baseline vs run-rate

2026-02-03 archived

• Forecasting for monetary policy (conditional vs unconditional forecasts) forecasting • assumptions
• Comparing time-series models for forecasting inpatient deaths & discharges (ARIMA, Prophet, LSTM, etc.) model bakeoff
• Timing matters: ML-driven comparison of community vs hospital-onset sepsis time/lag matters
• Exposing customer churn risk using a connected graph cohorts • graph thinking

2026-02-02 archived

• Why most activation metrics don’t predict who will stay (and what to use instead) Activation → retention (quality > volume)
• Cloud Cost Forecasting: Build a Reliable Cloud Budget (Methods, Software, Examples) Forecasting as debuggable model + drivers
• Automating Forecasting Question Generation and Resolution for AI Evaluation Forecasting at scale (question gen + resolution)
• Production planning and scheduling: A 2026 guide for manufacturers Separate actuals vs forecast; make uncertainty visible

Your stuff (canonical)

• Minimal Data site
• Minimal Data Model (B2B) mdm
• YouTube: @Minimal_Data shorts
• Shared Glossary repo (private) working

Explorable / simulation vibes

• Bret Victor (Worrydream) explorable explanations
• Explorables interactive
• Distill interactive papers

Targets / forecasting / planning

• Forecasting discipline calibration
  • Forecasting: Principles and Practice (Hyndman & Athanasopoulos)
  • The Flaw of Averages (why average-case plans fail)
• Operator planning mechanics
  • Kellogg — Did You Just Make a Plan or a Budget?
  • Kellogg — Focus on Next-Quarter’s Pipeline (coverage as a forecast input)
  • Kellogg — Forecasting archive (pick posts to model interactively)
  • CFO Secrets (battle-tested finance operator thinking)
  • The SaaS CFO (metrics + disclosure + ops finance)

SaaS businesses that benefit from MDM-style thinking

• Sales-led B2B SaaS pipeline → revenue lag
  • When the gap between forecast and target is really an unspoken bet on pipeline coverage, win rates, cycle time, and onboarding time-to-value.
• PLG / self-serve SaaS activation mechanics
  • Where “conversion” is actually a chain: visit → signup → activation → habit → upgrade, with time lags and cohort decay.
• Usage-based / infra SaaS value realization
  • Revenue is downstream of adoption intensity; cohorts + expansion/contraction dominate naive MRR models.
• Vertical SaaS retention + workflows
  • Churn is often workflow displacement (not “CS problems”); decomposition forces you to name the mechanism.
• Fintech / payments SaaS unit economics
  • Gross margin, take-rate, risk, and funding constraints make “growth” a system, not a line chart.
• Marketplace-ish SaaS two-sided volume
  • Supply/demand matching makes the Volume/Value/Time-to-Value triangle explicit (and easy to lie about without a model).

Technical SaaS posts begging for interactivity

• David Skok — SaaS Metrics 2.0 metrics map
• David Skok — SaaS Metrics (original) drill-down tree
• Brad Feld — The Rule of 40% for a Healthy SaaS Company targets vs reality
• Neeraj Agrawal (Battery) — The SaaS Adventure (T2D3 framing) growth phases
• OpenView — Product-Led Growth Benchmarks funnels + time-to-value

People / companies I want to partner with

• Sam Savage — The Flaw of Averages uncertainty
• ProbabilityManagement.org chance-informed planning

Queue (future additions)

• Send me a link any time; I’ll decide whether it belongs here.
• Rule: if the page feels like “dashboard theater,” it doesn’t make the cut.